Thirsty Insights

The Cheat Code For The Next Big Thing

Here's a pattern that keeps repeating: what teenagers drink today often predicts what 21+ consumers will drink 5-7 years from now. Not just the flavors, but the format, carbonation levels, and even how they discover brands.

Three recent examples:

• La Croix -> Hard Seltzers (2013-2019) La Croix exploded with teenagers in the early 2010s, peaking around 2016-2017. Those teens learned to love subtle fruit flavors, aggressive carbonation, and wellness positioning. They also discovered La Croix through influencers, not traditional advertising.
  
  Fast forward to 2019: those same consumers, now 21+, drove White Claw and Truly to massive growth. The product attributes mirrored what they'd loved for years, just with alcohol. Some people in the industry even joked at the time that “White Claw was just La Croix with GNS”. And the influencer-driven marketing playbook? Lifted straight from La Croix.


• Starbucks -> Craft Beer (mid-90s to mid-2000s) Starbucks expanded rapidly in the late 90s and early 2000s, becoming the cool third place for teenagers to gather. This generation developed sophisticated palates for bitter, toasted flavors and learned that beverages could be an experience, not just refreshment.
  
  Years later, craft beer taprooms replicated the Starbucks model: social gathering spaces with premium, bitter beverages where the story behind what you're drinking matters as much as the taste. The IPA boom wasn't just about hops, it was served to consumers who'd spent their teenage years appreciating bitter complexity in a coffee cup.


• Prime / Energy -> Surfside (early 2020s to today) Prime exploded with teenagers and young adults in early 2020s, becoming the must-have hydration drink in schools nationwide. Those consumers learned to love bold flavors in a non-carbonated, convenient format. When those same consumers started reaching legal drinking age, the breakout success of ready-to-drink cocktails like Surfside wasn't surprising, it was predictable.

The pattern is clear: teenage beverage preferences are a leading indicator for beverage alcohol trends. Check out the image below

How to use this idea this week:

• For emerging brands: Stop optimizing for right now. You want to be right in 5-7 years, not now. Start asking: what are 16-year-olds drinking today, and what would the alcoholic version look like in 2030? Prime, Poppi, Olipop, and Liquid Death are all worth studying.


• For established brands: The speed of the teenage trend predicts longevity. Starbucks grew steadily for a decade; craft beer followed the same trajectory. Crystal Pepsi spiked and crashed in 18 months; Zima did the same. Slow-building teenage trends create durable beverage alcohol categories. Fads create fads. Which are you chasing?


• For operators and distributors: If you want to spot the next White Claw before your competitors, spend less time in beverage alcohol trade shows and more time understanding what high schoolers are drinking and how they're discovering those brands.